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Vol. 102 No. 48
Bill Davidson, President
Parisa Adrangi, Secretary

MEETING JUNE 16, 2020 (virtual)
Greg D'Avignon, President and CEO,
Business Council of BC
Doing business in a COVID world & how we rebuild the economy & society

Greg D’Avignon is the President and CEO of the Business Council of B.C., a 250-member driven policy and advocacy organization comprised of the province’s leading businesses in every sector of the provincial economy and B.C.’s post-secondary institutions. Collectively BCBC members employ 25 percent of the province’s labour force.
 
A fourth generation British Columbian, Greg has held senior private and public sectors leadership positions over the last 25 years, including serving the Prime Minister of Canada. He is a frequent contributor, facilitator and commentator on business and public policy issues that influence the economy and prosperity of Canada and British Columbia.

Greg is the past-Chair of the BC Cancer Foundation and former Chair of the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation. He is a current member of the Board of the YMCA of Greater Vancouver, Co-Chair of the YMCA What Really Matters Capital Campaign, and a Board member of the Premier’s Indigenous Business Investment Council and the BC Academic Health Science Network. Greg was a recipient of the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee Medal and has been named one of Vancouver’s Power 50 list of influencers.

 

NEXT MEETING JUNE 23, 2020 (virtual)
Vindy Teja, Life and Divorce Coach, TEDx Speaker, Author
Change is inevitable... except from a vending machine

We all have different ways to prepare for and deal with life changes, both expected and unexpected. Life outcomes vary depending on a wide variety of factors, including our views and responses to change. What did we initially think of change? How has it evolved based on our life experiences and of those around us? Where have we ended up in our "relationship" with change? In this talk, Professional Life & Divorce Coach Vindy Teja shares her journey about her love-hate relationship with change, and lessons she learned about surviving and thriving in times of change.
 
Vindy is a graduate of UBC and Western Law School. Following her Call to the BC Bar, she assisted law students as the Director of Career Development at Western Law School. Eventually she shifted her coaching focus and became a Certified Divorce Coach in addition to obtaining certifications in Life Coaching and Personal Training. Her diverse background, including her own experience of divorce and parenting, has equipped her with a wide lens with which to assist he clients and a continuing passion to serve others. 
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Celebrate the Rotaract leaders throughout District 5040 in our Hawaiian themed Virtual Awards Night!

We will celebrate the many contributions of our Rotaractors over the past year and welcome the incoming leadership team for each club in our district. Bala Naidoo & Dave Hamilton will be attending to award, among others, the Bill Richwa Award & Rotaractor of the Year Award.
 
Throw on a Hawaiian shirt and a lei if you've got it! Grab a cocktail, put your feet up and relax.
 
The show runs from 7 to 8 p.m. and we will leave the Zoom meeting open after 8 p.m. for anyone who wants to hang out and play games afterwards!

We hope you can join us!!!!

Here are the details to join the Zoom meeting. See you online!
Join Zoom Meeting, CLICK HERE
Meeting ID: 838 3495 8287
Password: 218310
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Online Auction | 50/50 Draw | June 1st - 30th
Grand Rotary Community Benefit

Three Rotary Clubs ..Port Moody, Coquitlam and Coquitlam Sunrise have created an on-line auction and 50/50 draw to raise funds to partially offset the loss of the RibFest in July. All proceeds from this event will be donated back to the local community. Major recipients of the funds will be the Share Food Bank, Eagle Ridge Manor, Camp Jubilee Kids Program, and the Starfish Backpack Program.
 
The auction runs from June 1st to 30th, 2020.
You can preview the auction items without having to Register.
 
CLICK HERE to go to the Grand Rotary Community Benefit website.
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Upcoming Events
CONTACT COMMITTEE CHAIRS FOR UPCOMING DATES
please click on the titles for more info for specific events
International Service Committee meeting (email international@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Jul 16, 2020 7:30 PM
 
Membership Committee Meeting (email membership@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Jul 28, 2020 8:30 AM
 
Food on the Corner
Aug 15, 2020 11:00 AM
 
International Service Committee meeting (email international@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Aug 20, 2020 7:30 PM
 
Membership Committee Meeting (email membership@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Aug 25, 2020 8:30 AM
 
Youth Service Committee meeting (email youth@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
Aug 25, 2020 11:00 AM
 
View entire list

MEMBERSHIP MATTERS

If no written objection is filed with the Secretary within 7 days of June 12, 2020 
by (June 18, 2020),
Leslie McGuire,
will upon payment of the dues and assessments determined by the Board, be declared elected as a member of the Rotary Club of Vancouver recognized by Rotary International.
 
The classification that Leslie will hold is
Real Estate Advisor”.
 
Proposer: Franz Gehriger
 
 
 
Rumana Monzur June 9th
 
Rose Wang June 9th
 
Gerry Glazier June 10th
 
John Sullivan June 11th
 
John Hoyle June 12th
 
Sahra Homayounian June 15th
 
Ian Storrs June 15th
 
at our Club
 
Phil Webber 21 years
wedding
 
John & Cindy Hayto
35 years, June 15th
 

Last Meeting June 9th, 2020

Bill Davidson, President, chaired the meeting and gave the invocation.
Miya Otake played O Canada on her harp.
Thomas Reppchen hosted the meeting via ZOOM.
 
President’s Announcements:
  • Thanks to Thomas for hosting the meeting via ZOOM.
     
  • Welcome guests, potential members, returning guests, and first-timers. Happy birthday to Cici Yim, from RC Fraserview.
     
  • Last week the issue of member insurance coverage was brought up. Here is more detailed info to put your mind to rest when volunteering or attending Rotary events. We are covered for:
    • Weekly meetings (obviously in-person)
    • Annual conferences
    • Leadership training sessions
    • Firesides & new member orientations
    • Dinners with dancing, auctions, etc.
      e.g., Oktoberfest, crab fest, Bollywood themed events
    • Volunteering as a Rotarian at local events planned by non-Rotarians, e.g., festivals & fairs
    • Volunteering as a Rotarian at various community programs, e.g., schools, Food on the Corner

      There are quite a few more things on the list. I think we are well covered. If you’d like the complete list, contact Carolyn.
       
  • Hoop-a-thon update. Justin Emilio submitted a brief report that will be included in this week’s Rotor. Essentially, on behalf of the Hoop-a-thon organizing committee, he thanked our club for our $5,000 donation as well as the numerous members who donated personally. Here’s how the funds will be used this year:
    • Strathcona basketball program, $8,190
    • RYLA, $4,000
    • Girls who LEAP (Lead, Empower, Act with Purpose), $5,000
    • Scholarships (8 recipients), $35,000
       
  • Three Rotary Clubs, Port Moody, Coquitlam and Coquitlam Sunrise, have created an on-line auction and 50/50 draw to raise funds to partially offset the loss of the RibFest in July. See above for more info. You can preview the auction items without having to register.
 
Parisa Adrangi, provided the Secretary's announcements:
  • reminders of upcoming events/meetings (see above)
  • birthdays: Rumana Monzur June 9th, Rose Wang June 9th, Gerry Glazier June 10th, John Sullivan June 11th, John Hoyle June 12th, Sahra Homayounian June 15th, Ian Storrs June 15th
  • member club anniversaries:  Phil Webber 21 years
  • wedding anniversaries:  John & Cindy Hayto 35 years June 15th  
 
Special announcements and members' moments:
  • Phil Webber let us know that Mary Watson passed away on May 5th. Phil’s history with Mary goes back to his time at the Arbutus Rotary Club.  Mary was synonymous with youth at that time with her passion for youth exchange. As her obituary states, Mary met many new people through her volunteer work abroad with Rotary and was active with the Youth Exchange program. She enjoyed a fabulous business career, led the way for women in Rotary, and became a world-class dragon boater. Mary become the first female District 5040 DG in 2003-04. As Phil said, the start of a good thing. Mary was a great person and Rotary member; those who knew her will remember her with affection.

     A celebration of Mary's life will be held at a later date when Covid -19 gatherings are relaxed. In the meantime, you can have a tree planted in her memory. CLICK HERE for Mary’s obituary and the link.
     
  • Mary Lynn Hanson of Easter Seals, thanked our club for our generous donation supporting a number of youth in need to attend their virtual camp. She, on behalf of Easter Seals, are very appreciative for the support of both our club, the youth committee, and a number of Rotary members individually.

    Brian Street, who was a camp councillor back in 1984 met with Mary Lynn to tell his story. She is now trying to connect with other alumni that Brian worked with back then.

    All of their camps are for the most vulnerable in the community and Covid-19 has exasperated their situations. The camp that will be supported by our donation is the Superheroes Virtual Camp, a week-long experience. There has already been great demand for the camp, at 80% capacity now and applications keep coming in. Thank you!
     
  • Joan Posivy let us know that the Rotaractors year end/year beginning event is this Saturday, 7:00-8:00 p.m. via ZOOM. They will be installing – any looking for something to dao Saturday night. Rotaractor’s yeard end installation of the 2020-21 Executive. See above for more details to join in. Everyone is most welcome and encouraged to participate!
     
  • John Hayto has been talking to Mar, our exchange student. She has said that things opening up recently in Spain. Mar is still keen on coming back to Canada for another month or two when possible.

    John’s son Justin, who resides in London, is currently quarantining in Toronto enroute to coming home to Vancouver for a time.
     
  • Thomas Reppchen popped by the Food on the Corner last Saturday. He shared some pics from this, the first event since the pandemic forced a shut down of services. It was not too busy but will probably pick up once the word gets out that they are back in business. Thomas will check on them again next Saturday. There has been no commitment for volunteers from our club for right now, however, if anyone wants to volunteer contact the Community Service Committee for more information.
 
Program:
Chris Motion introduced Jim Allworth, a strategist at RBC Securities. Jim has been a long time resource for Chris and always has good information to impart.
 
Jim began by saying that when thinking about the times we are experiencing now, the word that come to mind is uncertainty. For a bit, there was massive uncertainty. It has taken a toll on the economy and financial markets and it’s hard to see where we go from here.
 
Some conventional wisdom: Remind ourselves of how quickly things changed – January to mid-February the stock market was going up. COVID seemed to be China’s problem, there had not been a direct hit on Europe nor North America.
 
Well minds changed very quickly after mid-Feb. Went into deep dive in the stock market. There was a wholesale revision of expectations for the economy. Ideas started developing on projections of how things will proceed with respect to the virus. As things declining then loosening restrictions. Cases are decreasing faster, new deaths declining even faster than new cases, at least in the Western world and the EU. The trajectory of the virus and its impact has changed. It is unlikely that there will be any further surge of demand with the related demand for healthcare and swamping of resources. As the number of cases fall, the issue turns to reopening and restarting the economy.
 
Opening has gone beyond discussion.Trump & the US put pressure on regarding opening restrictions. Reopening is underway whether appropriate or not. Still don’t know where the virus will track. There is talk of second wave. Virtually all pandemics, except SARS, this has been the case. When we get there, we won’t be facing the same dire issues, e.g., lack of equipment (PPE access, ventilators, hospital preparation, medical experience for treating, treatments being developed).
 
Vaccines are in development. At least one anti-viral has gone to clinical trials and looks promising. Lots of others being tested. 40-50 vaccines under development. Big pharma companies are ramping up production so once approved will be able to get quantities out there as quickly as possible.
 
All of this has a calming effect on populations.
 
In March, the financial markets had frozen. Central banks, governments stepped in and have provided tremendous liquidity to allow the markets to function, heading off a credit crunch. There was a sparked fiscal response (US, Can, JP, Europe) to protect jobs, keep consumer floating. Though we don’t know how effective the fiscal response to the direct government aid to help businesses and individuals get through the gulf will be, we are headed in the right direction economically. Will be a long haul; 2nd quarter will be the abyss, 3rd quarter in July see some recovery, 4th quarter
 
It will be at the very earliest, the end of 2021 into 2022 before we see full recovery, maybe even not until the end of 2022, into 2023. Scaling back expectations for corporate earning. Plenty of ways that we are getting curve balls thrown at us. On the other hand, it may be that well see some unexpected good surprised. Anything that produces increased confidence to the consumer will help the broad economy.
 
Markets could be impacted by other factors as well. E.g., Italy, a large country with more deaths, other than Greece, per capita to date. They have done particularly well financially. The Italian debt crisis could prompt another credit crisis. Another example, Mexico, a country most dependant on oil and tourism, both of which are in the penalty box. It is very possible that we could see Mexican debt as a problem. A possible Mexican default will definitely spoil the party.
 
One of Jim’s colleagues has a favourite saying, “Never one cockroach.” Things can be difficult and then can become more difficult because of these things we didn’t see or anticipate happening.
 
We think the markets have behaved remarkably well. It doesn’t seem to be behaving in a way that makes sense to people. It’s going up every day. This is what happens with a bear market. Economy is shrinking, earnings are shrinking, markets are going up. Turns out investors are looking at long term value, vs short term.
 
We’ve had any number of important disturbing events over the last 100 years – wars, nuclear disasters, strikes. When they were over, they were over. They did not cast a long shadow over the economy. The Spanish flu was much worse than COVID; it predominantly killed young adults, and it happened on the heals of a world war. And yet, the economy was back up and running a year to a year and half after it was over.
 
This was also true of the great depression. Most people think with the crash in 1929, the market continued to fall into 1933. World war II brought the markets back. In 1934 the economy grew by 11%, 1935 by 16%, 1936 by 11%, and 1937 by 7%. Would have gone on growing except US gov’t put limits on it that put a stop to this growth. It wasn’t the war that pushed it.

Saying that when they are over, they are over and these events don’t cast a long shadow on the economy, they certainly do cast a long shadow on people’s perceptions. The latest recession was over in 2009, most people didn’t believe it. Same goes here – the world will never be the same. If that’s the case it will be the first time ever.
 
Most likely 2022 things will be back running well. If you are thinking of buying a business, thinking of future profitability, over coming years. Well think about it this way: if you blow up this year and next year’s earnings, they still have a huge proportion of that business to look forward to. For the current situation to make a permanent loss, you need to make a crazy large loss. If you look forward, normalcy will still be a lower growth rate than in the last dozen years or so, but will grow.
 
One question: concern over business and government deficits – not too concerned. Everyone is in the same boat. Shorten a recession, and avoiding a depression would be valuable. Cost of financing is low meaning the cost of carrying this incremental debt is minimal to the country. Only problem they should do more long term financing, e.g., 50 year bonds. Canada went into this event with a pretty healthy balance sheet (debt to GDP). There is worry is that it could create an inflation problem in the future but if so, it is probably 2-5 years out. We have blown the doors off with current situation but so has everyone else.
 
So far, so good.
 
Inflation is always a result of too much money chasing too few goods. Recall after the financial crisis ended, it didn’t happen as predicted. Missing link, lots of money, but there was also lots of goods available. Today there is real money printing-handing money to businesses and people. Still not too few goods, with the economy shut down. Need to get consumer and business spending ramped up to get rid of excess cash available.
The breakdown of global supply chains is perhaps a potential for inflationary potentials, but not drastically so. Changes happen, businesses plan to work differently to compensate. It is really more of a political issue.
 
With regards to the Canadian energy sector, they are working against a lot – limited access to markets, collapse of demand. Our own forecast looking at oil high $30, predicted low $40s next year. This still won’t be enough to resurrect the industry in Canada. Most development opportunities we have are high cost… long slow grind. Energy industry around since 1850, has always either been boom or bust. Busts have been progressively longer over time.
 
Forecast for CDN$ vs US$: currencies move around mostly because of relative interest rates. Capital flows across the border are significantly larger than trades. The control is with Central Banks who set the rates. For a strong Canadian dollar, you need some expectation that the Bank of Canada will raise rates faster than reserves. Central Banks are committed to keeping rates low for some time. The view for our dollar will remain low for some time.
 
The markets are saying things are strong now, the economy says otherwise; is this a concern? Markets never say anything that you should count on. They are a rough approximation of value over time. A lot of the view regarding it being overvalued was based on what it was at the end of March. Trying to square the circle of markets vs economy is a never ending exercise. Focus on the long term, short term is too uncertain.
 
All that said, there is a reasonably optimistic view moving forward.
 
 
Meeting adjourned with a toast quoting Dr. Bonnie Henry, "We'll make it through this together by being kind and being patient. Be kind, be calm, and be safe."
 

July 10, 2020

ROTARY OPENS OPPORTUNITIES

Gerry Glazier, President
admin@rotaryvancouver.org   Gabby Dickert, Secretary