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Vol. 102 No. 49
Bill Davidson, President
Parisa Adrangi, Secretary

MEETING JUNE 23, 2020 (virtual)
Vindy Teja, Life and Divorce Coach, TEDx Speaker, Author
Change is inevitable... except from a vending machine

We all have different ways to prepare for and deal with life changes, both expected and unexpected. Life outcomes vary depending on a wide variety of factors, including our views and responses to change. What did we initially think of change? How has it evolved based on our life experiences and of those around us? Where have we ended up in our "relationship" with change? In this talk, Professional Life & Divorce Coach Vindy Teja shares her journey about her love-hate relationship with change, and lessons she learned about surviving and thriving in times of change.
 
Vindy is a graduate of UBC and Western Law School. Following her Call to the BC Bar, she assisted law students as the Director of Career Development at Western Law School. Eventually she shifted her coaching focus and became a Certified Divorce Coach in addition to obtaining certifications in Life Coaching and Personal Training. Her diverse background, including her own experience of divorce and parenting, has equipped her with a wide lens with which to assist he clients and a continuing passion to serve others.

 

NEXT MEETING JUNE 30, 2020 (virtual)
Club Day!!
The final meeting of the 2019-20 year

 
___________________________________________________________________________
Congratulations to Joan Posivy for receiving a Rotaract Lifetime Achievement Award.
 
Mentoring and helping young adults is a passion for Joan.
She has been a presenter for RYLA - Rotary Youth Leadership Awards since 1996, is currently the District 5040 Rotaract Chair, and also our club's Rotaract Lias
 
Such a positive person who provides great inspiration and leadership -- an award well-deserved Joan!
_________________________________________________________________________

The Virtual Convention will take place 20-26 June. 
There is no cost to participate and the event is open to everyone! 

CLICK HERE to signup.
Submit your name and email and check the boxes to accept the Terms and Conditions.

 
You can find the entire schedule here, including a link to a time conversion tool. On 19 June, visit www.riconvention.org, and click the General Session Button. You can test your connection and verify that you are set up to see and hear the content on 20 and 21 June.
 
On 20 and 21 June, again go to www.riconvention.org, and click the General Session button. That will take you to a site where you will be able to see and hear the program, chat with other participants, and enjoy.
 
For featured breakouts on 22-26 June, go to the convention site, and click the Featured Breakouts Button. This will take you to the schedule, with links to each featured breakout. Click the link and you will enter the breakout you selected.
 
There are no excuses not to attend.
You can be sitting anywhere in the world and there is no cost.
You can even invite friends and family to join you.
___________________________________________________________________________
Our Youth Committee presented Easter Seals with a donation of $5,700 to sponsor youth attending their Superheros Virtual Camp.
Of special note, Brian Street was a counselor at the Easter Seals camp when he was a youth, so this must be extra special for him.
Kudos to Phil for his face mask.
___________________________________________________________________________
 

Online Auction | 50/50 Draw | June 1st - 30th
Grand Rotary Community Benefit

Three Rotary Clubs ..Port Moody, Coquitlam and Coquitlam Sunrise have created an on-line auction and 50/50 draw to raise funds to partially offset the loss of the RibFest in July. All proceeds from this event will be donated back to the local community. Major recipients of the funds will be the Share Food Bank, Eagle Ridge Manor, Camp Jubilee Kids Program, and the Starfish Backpack Program.
 
The auction runs from June 1st to 30th, 2020.
You can preview the auction items without having to Register.
 
CLICK HERE to go to the Grand Rotary Community Benefit website.
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Upcoming Events
CONTACT COMMITTEE CHAIRS FOR UPCOMING DATES
please click on the titles for more info for specific events
International Service Committee meeting (email international@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Jul 16, 2020 7:30 PM
 
Membership Committee Meeting (email membership@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Jul 28, 2020 8:30 AM
 
Food on the Corner
Aug 15, 2020 11:00 AM
 
International Service Committee meeting (email international@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Aug 20, 2020 7:30 PM
 
Membership Committee Meeting (email membership@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
virtual ZOOM meeting
Aug 25, 2020 8:30 AM
 
Youth Service Committee meeting (email youth@rotaryvancouver.org for meeting invite)
Aug 25, 2020 11:00 AM
 
View entire list

MEMBERSHIP MATTERS

Update regarding membership application for Leslie McGuire: Leslie has decided to join the RC Vancouver Sunrise Club.
 
 
 
Kendall Jessiman June 22
 
at our Club
 
Franco Gallo 5 years
 
Keith Phillips 5 years
 
Tremayne Perry 56 years
wedding
 
none this week
 

Last Meeting June 16th, 2020

Bill Davidson, President, chaired the meeting and gave the invocation.
Miya Otake played O Canada on her harp.
Thomas Reppchen hosted the meeting via ZOOM.
 
President’s Announcements:
  • Thanks to Thomas for hosting the meeting via ZOOM.
     
  • Welcome guests, potential members, returning guests, and first-timers.
     
  • The Rotaract year-end installation & celebration was on Saturday. Of special note for us was that Joan Posivy received a Rotaractor for Life award in recognition of the hard work she has done and the support she offers all Rotaractors as our Club Rotaract Liaison as well as the District Rotaract Chair. Congratulations Joan!

    The incoming President for the Young Professionals Rotaract Club is Ben Scheidegger who has been to our club meetings a few times. For UBC, the incoming President is Ariel Qi.

    The Bill Richwa Rotaractor of the Year Award, 2 recipients this year: Sophie Callander of the Young Professionals Rotaract Club, and Ben Tam of the New Westminster Rotaract Club.
     
  • RI has sent everyone an email advertising the 2020 Rotary Virtual Convention. Dates June 20-26 with lots of sessions one can participate in. There is no cost to sign up; it is open to all members, including friends and family. CLICK HERE for more info.
 
Parisa Adrangi, provided the Secretary's announcements:
  • reminders of upcoming events/meetings (see above)
  • birthdays: Kendall Jessiman June 22
  • member club anniversaries:  Franco Gallo 5 years, Keith Phillips 5 years, Tremayne Perry 56 years!!
  • wedding anniversaries: none this week 
 
Special announcements and members' moments:
  • Miya Otake let us know that her Mom, Kayo, started radiation therapy this week after finishing chemo. By all accounts Kayo is doing quite well. Best wishes are being sent to her from all of us.
     
  • Parisa Adrangi, shared that her daughter’s high school grad was last week. It was done in quarantine style, in the dining hall at the school (only 3 guests per student) set up at distanced tables, with only small number of students at time. On Saturday they had a celebration dinner at TCC, with under 50 including staff. TCC was very cooperative. Had lots of sanitizing protocols in place. Seems this event was a pilot project for them. Though they weren’t able to stay distanced the entire time, they did their best. It was wonderful. Congratulations to Tiara who is going to be attending John Hopkins, studying chemical molecular engineering!
     
  • Barbara Welsh, relayed a scary story. While on walk on her own near her home in Whistler she was charged by a mother bear. Barbara was crossing a bridge, saw the bear so stopped, waited for the bear to move along. When Barbara checked on the bears progress, unbeknownst to her the young cub has moved to be right behind her. So close that if she had turned and took a step, she probably would have stepped on it. Baby wasn’t so baby, probably last year’s cub but still under mom’s protection. Barb froze not knowing quite what to do. The cub didn’t seem to mind her and clambered down under the bridge. However, mother was now on the bridge walking towards Barbara. Now you are supposed to stand there looking really big, but in the face of such fear, that’s not easy. Barbara turned and ran as fast as she could. Momma was running after her. She got to a school ground, not a wonderful place to be in the circumstances, got around the corner of the building and then looked back.  Thankfully, Momma had stopped and was going back to baby. All ended well, thank goodness!!
     
  • Cici Yim of RC Fraserview is holding their installation lunch on June 24th. If anyone wants to join in, let Cici know. It will be at 12 noon at Season’s in the Park. Welcome incoming President, Erin Chung.
 
Program:
Jim Evans introduced speaker, Greg D’Avignon, the President and CEO of the Business Council of BC. Greg’s topic was Doing business in a COVID world and how we rebuild the economy & society.
 
Greg, admitted to being a big Rotary fan. His whole family have been, some still are, very involved with Rotary. Greg himself benefitted as a youth by being a Rotary scholarship recipient. Just at a point in time when there is so much uncertainty, Rotary’s values are more important than ever.
 
The Economic Fall-Out of COVID-19: How Bad Is It and Where Are We Going?
 
I know many have been frustrated by the many aspects of COVID. Want to share the opportunity to consider some food for thought:  There are good things ahead going forward.
 
Many countries are at different stages in stabilizing the process. Supply chains have been interrupted all around the world. As of today, if you look at WHO, there are over 8.2M confirmed cases, over 445K have died. With more testing, these numbers will likely increase. With more economic movement and loosening of rules, there is a fear of increased potential transmission rates. This is a real concern.
 
We’ve been operating March through May at about 30% of normal. Modelling of BC shows that when you get to about 70%, you see the risk of exponential transmission rates.
Great work is being done but they probably won’t have vaccines available for at least 18 months. 64 nations are doing vaccine work, including BC in Canada. Once a vaccine is approved effective, then most of those jurisdictions will take care of their own populations first before distributing out. Will it be effective? No one knows. There has not been an effective vaccine developed for SARS yet.
 
Canada’s economy was already slowing before the pandemic hit, COVID has exacerbated it. It is likely there will be a 300B deficit this year alone. Larger business, as well as smaller, are going to fail – approx. 500K expected. Some sole proprietors, some with employees. This morning the federal government announced that CERB will be extended through to end of summer.
 
There are all kinds of trends we can study that occurred before the pandemic. With each there is a fundamental transition of society and the economy, but usually it takes decades. We expect to see an acceleration with COVID shortening the transition to 3-5 years. Its going to change how we buy, work, live, learn, travel, and how we manage our own health. You may have experienced significant change already yourself.
 
We can expect a best case of global economic decline of 6%. If 2nd wave hits, then we may increase to 8-8.5%. This is a much deeper recession than we experienced in 2008-09.
Not surprisingly Canada has been very analogue. Firms that had already invested in the digital space are actually expanding and growing. Banks are taking unprecedented steps to shoring up economy. Real terms give sense of what will continue in 2020 with the global GDP growth at -6%. What we can expect in 2021 is a conservative 5.2% growth. It will take at least until the 3rd quarter in 2022 or beginning of 2023 before we see positive growth moving towards “normal”.
 
B.C. has a lot of reasons to do well. We are controlling the virus very well. Dr. Bonnie Henry is talking to people every day. We have managed to keep our economy open during most of the time.  The numbers are a bit misleading right now. As testing has increased significantly very recently the COVID case numbers may change as a result.
 
The restart strategy that was put into place a couple of weeks ago still restricts quite a bit, wanting to keep normal interactions at about 50%. It’s all about managing public health and health systems so that we can quickly and safely manage cases. During April – May we were running at about 56% capacity, normally about 101%. The concern is about keeping it below the 70% threshold to stay safe and control transmissions.
 
A lot of businesses, in fact over 130 different sectors, stayed open throughout. Phase 2 that came into effect in May, allowed the opening of non-essential retail, offices, restaurants (50% capacity only), health care and other professional services and businesses. Must follow strict guidelines. Phase 3, June-September, will see hotels, resorts, parks, film/TV production, post-secondary and K-12 education all resume operations with new restrictions. Phase 4, no set date yet, includes international tourism/travel, conventions, large meetings, concerts, sporting events, etc.
 
The re-opening will bring an upswing in employment, but it will take time. One of the things aware of is catastrophic on employment. There is no historical precedent for the recent employment drop – a loss of almost 400K jobs to date due to COVID. This is primarily a private sector issue, with over 95% of the job losses in the private sector.
The group most impacted is our younger workers, 15-24 years of age. There is an almost 30% unemployment in that group. In some industries there is an anomaly being experiences where they need workers but cannot find the people to fill positions; it may be because it is better for them to take CERB payments than working part-time. The bigger issue than just employment is our youth are languishing which has a number of ripple effects for their futures.
 
There has been a bit of a bounce in some sectors due to reopening. Throughout it all, there has been a move to try to shore up businesses and individuals from the federal government, with emergency wage subsidy, the emergency business account, as well as a number of other initiatives. The BC government has not spent a lot on this but has done things such as delaying tax remittance filings and payments, reduced school taxes for commercial & industrial properties, relief on Hydro payments, etc. BC has set aside $1.5B for economic recovery with specifics of allocation to be determined as need is identified. Of course, the consequence of the aid to help offset the difficulties is that the bills will still need to be paid. Taxes are expected to go up.
 
What does the COVID-19 crisis mean for all of us?
  • Isolation and nativism. Seeing play out in unfortunate ways, particularly racially. See a shift to remote working from home. This leads to cost savings but will have knock down effects on office space, and businesses that rely on populations in the downtown core.
  • There are some risks, but there are opportunities as well. Immigration may well increase as BC and Canada very attractive, more so now than ever.
  • There has been a sharp fall off in business travel. Huge consequences for the travel & conference industry. How we think about travel is going to change dramatically.
  • Increased use of digital platforms. How we personally and professionally bank and interact has made e-commerce the norm for most. This all will create new jobs that we don’t even know about yet.
  • How we shop, where we shop will change. How we learn, where we learn will change. Location will no longer be a factor.
  • It has become evident that we have become extremely reliant on the global supply chain. It will be important to have more control, requiring resiliency of the global supply.
  • Healthcare has transformed radically. Over 80% of consultations are happening online. People and doctors are getting used to it.
To conclude, we acknowledge that the world is slipping into a very deep recession; we will all be affected. The global aspect will, in particular, affect BC’s export sector. We will see some widespread business failures, though there will also be some opportunities as well, for new businesses to emerge.
 
Though there is very real worry about a 2nd wave of COVID, we want to stay positive. We should concentrate on how to use this transformational period to create growth, be prosperous, and succeed.
 
CLICK HERE to view a copy of Greg D’Avignon's powerpoint presentation.
 
 
Meeting adjourned with a toast to all of the nieces, nephews, children and grandchildren who are graduating this year. We wish them well and good luck for their futures.
 

July 10, 2020

ROTARY OPENS OPPORTUNITIES

Gerry Glazier, President
admin@rotaryvancouver.org   Gabby Dickert, Secretary